1. The outside world is none-the-wiser about the inner workings and likely consequences of the recent bizarre & explosive Wagner affair. There's much speculation, but little hard information.
2. The event sign-posted the potential for Russia to degenerate into a failed state. Not just in terms of dysfunction, but in the sense of a collapse of central government and the emergence of local anarchies. This, however, is speculation rather than prediction – after all, although somewhat frayed, the Kremlin came out of the Wagner insurrection intact.
3. The possibility of state collapse underlines the importance of securing Russia’s nuclear arsenal. On the other hand, historically, Moscow’s control over these weapons appears to have been tighter than in the US. Moscow has apparently had firmer central command arrangements. (For a look at how loose things have sometimes been in the US, see:
4. Indeed, Washington seems to believe that this is one area that Moscow has handled well. There appears to be a stark difference between some of the reckless Russian nuclear rhetoric and Moscow's actual management of the weapons.
5. However, it remains to be seen how much strain the nuclear system can withstand if the military fractures further.