Andy Butfoy
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Up-date on US nuclear weapons

28/3/2021

 
Hans Kristensen and Matt Korda have published their latest analyses of the US and Russian nuclear arsenals. Perhaps the best publicly available and readily accessible information on the topic.
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Russian SS-27 inter-continental ballistic missile.

UK nuclear forces

18/3/2021

 
The UK's "Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy" has just been published. Of particular interest to me is a reversal of the previous policy of gradual reduction of nuclear weapons down to 180 warheads. There will now be a gradual increase, with a new ceiling of 260 warheads (pp. 76-78). The strategy surrounding these weapons is marked, in part, by an official emphasis on "deliberate ambiguity".

All this is, of course, accompanied by a ritualistic, politically necessary and perhaps laughable affirmation of the goal of "a world without nuclear weapons" and "full implementation of the NPT in all its aspects, including nuclear disarmament..."

 Hans Kristensen has published a critical commentary. For a more pro-nuclear opinion piece which looks at aspects of the US-UK nuclear  relationship, see Linton Brooks et al.

For a sense of just how speculative some of the commentary has been, see the article by Mathew Harries in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. As Harries notes, we just don't know what, exactly, is behind the UK adjustment to nuclear weapons policy.

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Biden and the Bomb

1/2/2021

 
My thoughts on the nuclear weapons aspect of the transition from President Trump to President Biden, from Inside Story. 
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Nuclear Command Authority

10/1/2021

 
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President Trump's unhinged behaviour, especially on January 6th, prompted concern about, and a flurry of interest in, how the so-called 'nuclear button' works. Here are some of the expert articles used in the media:

* Amy Woolf, for the Congressional Research Service, 2020, Defense Primer: Command and Control of Nuclear Forces.

​* William Perry, Politico, 2021, Trump Still Has His Finger on the Nuclear Button. This Must Change.

* Jeffrey Lewis & Bruno Tertrais, Center for Nonproliferation Studies, 2019, The Finger on the Button: The Authority to Use Nuclear Weapons in Nuclear-Armed States.

Nuclear Hit-Job in the Middle East

30/11/2020

 
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The assassination of leading Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh​ generated considerable speculation. Here's some of the better informed and/or more considered examples:
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  • Mark Fitzpatrick, IISS, "Assassinating a scientist to kill the Iran deal".
 
  • Thomas L. Friedman, The New York Times, "Dear Joe, It’s Not About Iran’s Nukes Anymore".
 
  • Barbara Slavin,  The New York Times,  "Why Was Iran’s Top Nuclear Scientist Killed?".
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  • David Patrikarakos, Spectator, "Why Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was killed now".


Nuclear Weapons Issues in 2020

13/10/2020

 
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Something to take your mind off the COVID disaster... A gloomy article by ​Paul Sonne, in The Washington Post.

The US-China Strategic Balance?

5/10/2020

 
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Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists has provided ​a critical assessment of the Pentagon's presentation of the US-China military balance in the Indo-Pacific. See also his look at the Pentagon's annual report on China's military developments.

Former Republican National Security Officials Attack President Trump.

22/8/2020

 
  Scores of former Republican national security officials attack President Trump in ​​this 10-point article.
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The State of America

15/8/2020

 
Well-written, thought-provoking articles about the USA and its current woes (some are more polemical than others, but I have an anti-rant filter): 

1. 15th August, Nick Bryant in The Age.
2. 6th August, Wade Davis in RollingStone
3. 23rd July, Fintan O'Toole in The Atlantic
4. 24th June, Tom McTague in the New York Review of Books
5. 3rd June, Max Boot in The Washington Post


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Australian Defence Update

1/7/2020

 
How and why the Australian government intends to spend $575 billion on defence over the next ten years. (With a projected annual expenditure of $73 billion by 2030, up from about $40 billion today.) here to edit. The new Defence Strategic Update.

Some commentaries:
  1. Michael Shoebridge
  2. From The Guardian: Allan Behm, Ashley Townshend, and Brendan Thomas-Noone.
  3. ​From Joseph Camilleri, there's this and this. 
  4. Mark Beeson
  5. Geoffrey Barker
  6. John Lee 
Useful data (follow the links) from Marcus Hellyer (ASPI). 


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  • About Andy
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